Data Shows That Social Behavior Gets More Followers

If you like this post, or any of my work, please, nominate me for a Shorty Award.

The linguistic analysis engine behind TweetPsych has given me a bunch of cool data points to analyze, so I’ve begun to look at various factors and their relationship with follower counts. Using a database of over 30,000 accounts that have been analyzed with TweetPsych, the first dimension I’ve looked at is “Social Behavior”.

The “Social Behavior” category includes inclusive language like “we” and “you”, as well as language that describes relationships and communication. As it turns out, accounts with more followers, tended to be using more social language.

Over the next week or two, I’ll be posting about the rest of the dimensions TweetPsych analyzes and how they’re related to follower numbers, so stay tuned.

If you like this post, or any of my work, please, nominate me for a Shorty Award.

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The 8 Elements of Contagious Ideas

In the research I’ve been doing over the past few years into why ideas spread, I’ve found a few common characteristics of contagious ideas across mediums and centuries. The list below contains those characteristics, and while its still an evolving set, the vast majority of successful memes I’ve studied have had some (or all) of them present. I’ve also tried to include takeaways, tactics you, as a marketer can use to apply these concepts to your viral campaigns.

If you like this post, or any of my work, please, nominate me for a Shorty Award.

Seeding

The first group of people exposed to your meme are your seeds. They’ll form the initial “generation” and the size and influence of this group will determine how many people will see your content in the second generation. Academic Duncan Watts’ research indicates (somewhat expectedly) that seeding to as many people as possible is the best way to ensure your content is seen by the most people. His experiment involved creating viral messages that were launched initially through large banner ad buys and compared the results to campaigns that were not seeded in this way. He found that the big seed banners performed much better.

Its easy and obvious to say that you should work to build your reach–your Twitter followers, your blog subscribers–but its harder to do than to prescribe. Sure, we can (and should) be working to get more followers, but another tactic is to target especially influential people to seed your campaigns to. Influential users are people who share content more frequently and with more people than the average user, and my research has shown that savvy social media users do exactly that. So even if your old-school niche doesn’t seem like a hotbed of social media activity, those individuals in your industry who are using social media are, by definition, influential.

Especially in less early adopter categories, find those users who are using the bleeding edge social media technologies in that space and seed your ideas to them.

Novelty

There’s very little chance that I’m going to email a link to a friend if its a story that everyone’s heard, new information is what gets shared. Francis Heylighen’s work on applied memetics specifically lists distinctiveness as a criteria required for an idea to be contagious, and research into attention and advertising shows that unique ads tend to elicit the highest attention-grabbing rates. My research has shown that news is the type of content shared most often online, and what is news, but literally new, novel information? Humans are being bombarded with accelerating torrents of information every waking moment and we’re getting pretty good at filtering out the boring stuff.

“Gossip is just news running ahead of itself in a red satin dress.”

Intuitiveness

The flip side of the novelty coin is the simple fact that if someone doesn’t understand an idea, they’re not very likely to pass it on. Even the newest information has to be easy to grasp. The Homeric poems were authored and recited for centuries before they were ever recorded in written word. These contagious epics were constructed with cliched phrases and mnemonic devices that made it easy for the average listener to understand, remember and re-tell.

The best way to incorporate both novelty and intuitiveness into a single piece of content is to use the “New/Old” tactic. Take an old piece of content and fit it into a new structure–think the newest Romeo and Juliet movie with Leonardo DeCaprio–or put some new idea into an old form–think steampunk, fantasy laser guns made out steam age era technology.

“…advertisements that were both original and familiar attracted the largest amount of attention to the advertised brand …” -Breaking Through the Clutter: Benefits of Advertisement Originality and Familiarity for Brand Attention and Memory Rik Pieters, Luk Warlop and Michel Wedel 2002

Relevance

Ever been to a party so loud its hard to listen to the person standing two feet in front of you? But the instant someone across the room says your name your ears perk up. Its called selective attention. Our senses take in far more information that we could ever hope to process, so our minds have sophisticated filtering mechanisms that strain out only the most important bits. When I ask people why they share content online, the number one motivation cited is “relevance”. People say things like “this story seemed right up my friend’s alley” or “this article reminded me of such-and-such.”

Ideas that seem personalized to us get our attention and when we see something that appears to have been created with one of our friends in mind, we’re very likely to send it to them. Use a tactic like combined relevance to make large groups of people believe you made something just for them.

Utility

Humans evolved to share information, its our biggest natural advantage. If we found a good foraging spot for the best berries and we shared that information with our tribe, we’d eat better that night. If we learned to make fire and taught our family how, or if we taught our children how to be the best blacksmiths in town we’d have a better life and our genes would thrive.

“…the more valuable the sentiment or activity the members exchange with one another, the greater the average frequency of interaction of the members…” –Social Behavior as Exchange, George C. Homans

Social exchange theory is the idea that most human interactions are an exchange of value, proverbs are a great example of this in action. The more useful you find the information I share with you, the more you’ll value our relationship and the more useful information you’ll share back with me. Teach your readers how to make fire or money, make it easy for them teach their friends and they’ll gladly spread your content for you.

Social Cascades


“One means we use to determine what is correct is to find out what other people think is correct… We view a behavior as more correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it” -Robert Cialdini

Social proof is a well trodden path of persuasion. When I know that other people have liked a piece of content, or believe in an idea, I’m more likely to accept it as well. But on the web, what happens next is most interesting and useful to marketers.

Imagine a line of people walking down a street. They’re all hungry and have never eaten in this part of town. They see two restaurants: A and B, and need to pick one to eat at. The first person in line knows nothing about either place and makes a random choice to line up outside of restaurant A. The second person in line, sees the first person outside of A, and figures the first person probably knows something, so she lines up behind him. The third person sees the growing line and makes the same choice, because if two other people are already lined up this definitely must be the best place to eat. Each person inline sees an even longer line, and hence a stronger signal about which restaurant to eat at. This is known in economic and game theory as an information cascade.

Think of the last email chain letter you got. It probably had hundreds of forwarded names and addresses on it. Many of us are immune to chain letters now, but lots aren’t and the cascade of social proof those forward headers supply is a big reason why. Or imagine you’re seeing a new blog for the first time, and its got a widget showing that it has tens of thousands of RSS subscribers, how does that change your opinion of the site’s value? Or an individual blog post, with a TweetMeme badge showing that 5,000 other people have ReTweeted it. Or a post with a thousand comments.

Social media allows us to broadcast our choices and opinions in public and create social cascades, take advantage of this and showcase your burgeoning social cascades.

Information Voids

During WWII the organization that would eventually become the CIA (it was called the OSS at the time) teamed up with its British counterpart MI6 and a researcher named Robert Knapp. Knapp had been doing academic work on how rumors spread on college campuses and the two intelligence agencies wanted to study how to weaponize rumors as a psychological force to use against the axis powers. One of the most interesting things they found was that the rumors tended to spread most contagiously in the presence of information voids.

If everyone in a village hears a loud boom, and there are no authoritative reasons for it, bucket fulls of reasons will popup and spread around as to what, exactly had happened. The recent Tiger Woods incident spread like wildfire because he made no official statements at first. Rumors about Apple’s next products are contagious because the company is notoriously tight lipped about them.

As a marketer you should find information voids and fill them.

Proselytism

Perhaps the most complex and successful memes in human history have been religions, and one of the most important elements of the contagiousness of religions ideas is the fact that nearly everyone of them values the duty of believers to spread the word.

A 1983 article titled “On Viral Sentences and Self-Replicating Structures” the author, Douglas R. Hofstadter recounts a letter he was sent in response to a previous piece. This letter describes viral sentences beginning with the rudimentary: “It is your duty to convince others that this is true.” The letter then explores a more subtle variation based on a simple structure: “The villain is wronging the victim.” If the listener believes this statement, and believes that the victim deserves to be saved and if the villain is bigger or more powerful than them they will realize that the only way to effectively challenge the villain is to recruit more people to help. The evangelism hook is implicit, subtle and powerful.

My study of ReTweets has uncovered this effect in two forms. The first is the fact that Tweets containing the phrase “please ReTweet” do tend to get more ReTweets. The second is that Tweets that mention ReTweeting, either in the content they’re linking to or simply by having been ReTweeted with the signature “RT” also tend to be ReTweeted more.

Most marketers know about the power of calls-to-action. If you want a reader to buy something, or take some action, you have to ask them to. The same is true with contagious content. You must, implicitly or explicitly ask your readers to spread your content for you.

If you like this post, or any of my work, please, nominate me for a Shorty Award.

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Zombie Marketing: How to use Combined Relevance to Go Viral

If you like my stuff (or zombies) please, nominate me for a Shorty Award, thanks.

I’ve given my science of social media marketing presentation a few times now, and one of the points that has stood out as an audience favorite has been a tactic I call combined relevance.

I did a survey a little over a year ago where I asked people why they shared content online, both one-to-one (as emailing or IM’ing a link to a single person) and broadcast (like Tweeting a link to thousands of followers). In both cases the faraway most common answer was relevance. Respondents often said things like “I saw some­thing and it made me think of one of my friends,” or “It seemed right up my friend’s alley.” When talking about broadcast sharing, the answers were similar: “I knew my audience would find it interesting.”

And if you take a second to think about why you send links to people this seems pretty obvious, but how as a marketer can we capitalize on this?

The answer is Combined Relevance.

Way back in early ’07 when I was doing Digg marketing type stuff, I had a weird little idea in the shower one morning. What if I mashed up a USB device and an absinthe spoon?

Absinthe, of course is a supposedly hallucinogenic alcoholic drink from the turn of the century. Its pretty gross actually (being very potent and anise flavored), and in order to make it more palatable, you have to put sugar in it. Absinthe spoons are these fancy slotted spoons that are placed on top of a glass of the green liquor, you put a sugar cube on the spoon, drip water onto it and the absinthe gets sweeter.

So I whipped up a quick site, USBAbsintheSpoon.com (it was far more sparse back then) and added a photoshopped image of a USB connector attached to an absinthe spoon along with some cryptic text “They said we couldn’t do it, but we did… Tell us why you want one.” Very few details about what the thing even did.

In a couple of hours it was on the front page of Digg and mentioned by a ton of sites, including mega-gadget blogs Gizmodo and Engadget. In under 24 hours there were over 500 comments on the site declaring their love for my creation. I ended up fielding calls from small town TV news stations who wanted to run “weird gadget” segments on it (I politely declined). And months later it was still being mentioned in articles like the world’s dumbest USB gadgets.

Why did it “go viral?”

It combined two seemingly distinct interests, gadgets and Victorian era intoxicants. Picture a Venn diagram. On the face of them you wouldn’t think there was much overlap, but as it turns out, there’s a lot of geeks into absinthe. And everyone who saw it and knew one of those geeks sent it to them, because holy-crap-this-is-right-up-so-and-so’s-alley.

I’m really into zombies, big time zombie nerd. Movies, books and I even used to have a studio where I painted them. I’m also into marketing. So if anyone who knows this ever saw an article about marketing to zombies, you’d better believe I’d be sent the link a hundred times.

By combining two apparently unrelated niches you can create a piece of content likely to go viral with people who just happen to be into both things. Give it a shot and let me know how it works out.

Oh and by the way, you know what the best social media marketing lesson we can learn from zombies is? Friends and family are the most contagious.Digg

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Introducing the New TweetPsych and TweetPsych for Lists

After I first launched the Twitter psychological profiling tool TweetPsych, some of the most common feedback I got was that it was hard to understand the results. So I designed a new reporting mechanism and design to solve that problem. The new TweetPsych uses “meta dimensions” which are combination of related factors from the two linguistic algorithms (RID and LIWC) the application uses. Each of these comes with a description and is represented on a bar graph. Each user’s profile is compared against the average user and the report explains which dimensions occur more or less frequently than the average.

I also launched a new feature for the site. TweetPsych for Lists allows you to do the same kind of psychological profiling, but of entire lists. Curious to know what the inside of Zappo’s employees’ heads looks like? Here you go.

If you have other ideas on how to make TweetPsych even better, let me know.

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My Predictions for Social Media Marketing in 2010

IRL

One of the most powerful potentials of social media is for it to not only connect people online, but facilitate connections offline as well. 2010 will see an increase in location aware apps and games that blur the line between the web and the real work with technologies like Four Square and augmented reality. Driving this will be continued interest in and improvement of mobile web technologies like smart phones and netbooks. The real world will be important again.

Micro-Targeting and Personalization

Everyone actively engaging in social networking is sharing a ton of data about themselves and in 2010 companies will leverage this information in increasingly sophisticated ways. Micro-targeting and personalization will take advantage of information on individual people to deliver highly customized messaging and content to small and smaller segments. Opinion mining technologies will begin to mature, allowing researchers to utilize the entire social web as a global focus group for any brand, product, service or idea.

Small Business Social Media Marketing

In 2010 small businesses will continue to realize the high bang-to-buck ratio of social media marketing and will get into it like never before. Social media is a great equalizer in that it allows small companies to compete more effectively with large ones. They’ll take a strong do-it-yourself stance and will demand accountability and effective analytics.

The Real Time Web

We’ve been hearing about the emergence of a real time web for a while now, but 2010 is the year when it will really come into its own bolstered by advances in mobile technology, micro-content production and the recent integration of Twitter with Bing and Google. Traditional link popularity search is too slow so it will be augmented or replaced by instant real time based search. Trend spotting will happen minutes or hours after some new fad starts, rather than days, weeks or months. And you’ll hear about breaking news faster than ever before.

I also contributed my predictions to TrendsSpotting’s 2010 social media influencers predictions. You can see the slideshow of a bunch of great thought leader’s ideas below.



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ReTweet this to Win a Free Copy of The Social Media Marketing Book

I’ll give a free copy of my book, “The Social Media Marketing Book” to five random people who ReTweet this post today, Monday November 30th. Each time you Tweet a link to this post you’ll be entered. Its as easy as clicking the green ReTweet button.

For winners in the US I’ll send you a printed copy of my book, for international folks, it’ll be an ebook version.

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Introducing: The Social Media Marketing Book

As you may or may not know, I’ve been working on a book for a while. Well, its finally done and in-stock on Amazon and should be in stores this week. The whole process has been very exciting and a lot of work (I had a ton of help from a great editor, Laurel as well as a whole bunch of other people who are mentioned in the back of the book).

The book is a very tactical, hands-on introduction to a wide range of social media marketing technologies, platforms, sites and opportunities. It’s a little different from the social media science stuff I do here on my blog, but it is based on real data and best practices as much as possible.

I’d like to ask you guys for two favors. One, if you like my work, buy a copy (or a few hundred). But even better, if you have a blog, email me a few questions for an interview post and I promise I’ll get back to you right away.

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Interview with Craig Newmark: How the Craigslist Meme Spread

One of the most ubiquitous and disruptive websites to emerge in the last 10 years is Craigslist. Impacting industries from real estate, news paper classifieds, careers and auctions the site has for the most part remained entirely free to use. A great example of organic, word-of-mouth spread I’ve always been interested in how the meme of Craigslist spread from city to city to become one of the most popular uses of the web.

I was lucky enough this week to get a chance to ask the site’s founder, Craig Newmark a few questions about exactly that. Here are his answers:

Dan: I think the social web is the great equalizer in terms of marketing. Non-profits don’t have to try to out-spend the big corporations anymore, they can simply out-think them and create contagious, well-intentioned ideas. If you were to give a non-profit just starting out one piece of advice on how they could “spread their meme” that you learned with Craigslist what would it be?

Craig: Anyone should seriously engage with their community about what they’re doing, including serious customer service. That means using email, Facebook, Twitter, any place where people in your community might hang out. Get feedback, and then, do something about it.

Dan: Did you do anything in the early days to help the site spread? Did you tell any “influential” people or send notes about it to any groups?

Craig: Never did any conscious networking, but I connected with lots of people via email and at industry events like launch parties. This was during the bubble years. I’m such a nerd, more so back then.

Dan: Do you remember any “tipping point” in the site’s history when the amount of people talking about it or using it seemed to take off? If yes, what do you attribute this to?

Craig: Never anything that I’d consider a tipping point. Our history is slow, continuous growth. In the race between tortoise and hare, well, we’re the slow guy.

Dan: In terms of the site’s initial spread, what do you think was most important the people who were using and talking about it, or the site’s features and content itself?

Craig: I think both equally important, that from the beginning we were clearly about people working with each other to help each other out. That’s somehow communicated directly between people, and from the look and feel of the site. There’s no fat on the site.

Dan: Of that most important element, what do you think was most key in the site’s early growth? (Ie What characteristic of its fans or what trait of the site?)

Craig: I think it had to do with the obviousness of the collaborative approach and the consistent culture of trust that grew. It has to do with the everyday practice of universal shared values like “treat people like you want to be treated” and “give the other person a break.” Now and then, we should be our brother’s keeper.

Dan: Do you have any knowledge into how newly added cities reach a “critical mass” of Craigslist usage? How do people in new cities find out about it? Does usage in a new city suddenly blow up or does it ramp up slowly?

Craig: No real knowledge, almost always a surprise. Might have to do with people moving from a CL city to a new one, where they spread the word. That’s the only guess I have from observing rapid growth city sites, like Las Vegas and Hawaii.

Dan: If you don’t mind sharing, what were the biggest sources of traffic in Criagslist’s early days? What are they now?

Craig: I think, then and now, jobs, housing, stuff for sale.

Dan: What are your three favorite contagious ideas spreading around the web right now?

Craig: The notion that we gotta help each other out to survive, and that social media is key to making that happen.

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Weekends and Afternoons Show the Highest Twitter CTRs

Want more clicks? My new data suggests that you should Tweet your links in afternoons, evenings and on weekends.

Continuing the study of Twitter clickthrough rates I started last week, I added over 100 more of the most followed Twitter accounts to my database and indexed click data on over 20,000 bit.ly links Tweeted by those accounts. In all of the data below, I measured CTR as the number of clicks a link received, divided by the number of followers the sending account had on the day it Tweeted it. As I noted in my other post, this number can be over 100% due to ReTweets that may use the same bit.ly link.

The graphs below shows the percentage of difference in CTR at each hour or day from the specific average for each account. I did it this way to account for the wide variation in CTRs between accounts (some accounts have much higher rates than others).

The first data point I analyzed is time of day (EST). It showed the expected afternoon/evening preference seen in my other Twitter stats.

Next I looked at days of the week, which showed a much less expected weekend preference. I believe this is due to the “link fatigue” present during the weekdays, where there is a much higher level of activity and many more links are posted.

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