How To Guestimate Keyword List Size Using Power Laws

Posted on Aug 21st, 2006
Share 

Here’s a crazy one.

Wordtracker only shows keywords with at least 2 searches in a 90 period on Metacrawler, which can be more or less equated to the total searches each day on all engines.

I’ve found most targetted keyword niches exhibit more or less normal power-law curves (as opposed to Nielson’s drooping tail, when graphed double logarithmically against a true power law trendline, keyword lists often have slightly drooping heads). So, speaking very roughly the second term has half as much traffic as the first, the third has a third, the fourth a fourth and so on.

When you’re building a keyword list with wordtracker, the “end” of the tail for you will be where the keywords have only 2 searches. So using our understanding of power laws we can estimate that this 2 searches point is at keyword number N, where the traffic of the very first term divided by N is 2. If the most popular phrase in your list has 400 searches the power law curve would suggest keyword number 200 has 2 searches a day.

So a quick rule of thumb to guestimate keyword niche breadth is to divide the traffic of the first time in half.

I’ve seen it be a decent rough estimate in nearly every “normal” niche I’ve looked at.

If you liked this post, don't forget to subscribe to my RSS feed or my email newsletter so you never miss the science.

View Comments to “How To Guestimate Keyword List Size Using Power Laws”

  1. Amrit Hallan Says:

    I wish I could read it in English…but anyway, a beginning has to happen.

Leave a Reply

blog comments powered by Disqus

Get my 22 page report full of scientifically proven ways to get more ReTweets by subscribing to my blog via email.

the social media marketing book

Key Posts

Recent Posts

Topics

Blogroll

Copyright © 2010 by Dan Zarrella, social media marketing and viral marketing consultant. All rights reserved. site map

DanZarrella.com, Social & Viral Marketing Scientist