Comments on: Informational Cascades Prove Tipping Points Exist

By: The 8 Elements of Contagious Ideas | Dan Zarrella

The 8 Elements of Contagious Ideas | Dan Zarrella — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 15:11:32 +0000

[...] Imagine a line of people walking down a street. They’re all hungry and have never eaten in this part of town. They see two restaurants: A and B, and need to pick one to eat at. The first person in line knows nothing about either place and makes a random choice to line up outside of restaurant A. The second person in line, sees the first person outside of A, and figures the first person probably knows something, so she lines up behind him. The third person sees the growing line and makes the same choice, because if two other people are already lined up this definitely must be the best place to eat. Each person inline sees an even longer line, and hence a stronger signal about which restaurant to eat at. This is known in economic and game theory as an information cascade. [...]

By: Ivan Walsh

Ivan Walsh — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 15:11:46 +0000

Hi Dan,

Group dynamics is determined by several factors, among which greed, fear, vanity all play a part. Watching how stock markets fluctuate is a good example of this. One ‘hot’ rumor and suddenly everyone wants to get in on the action. Humans are irrational.

The problem for Social Media folks is that it’s very hard to predict how people will behave, i.e. and, by extension, what will trigger an information cascade.

This brings us back to the good ol Chaos theory. (Let’s not go there for now.)

Agreed but how you can forecast — and respond— to this is the real dilemma. The cascade will occur. But what’s going to trigger it?

I think Google are best placed to undo this Gordian knot as they crunch increasing volumes of data, not just from their site but also from Voice and other information streams.

By: edward04

edward04 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 20:31:35 +0000

Great post, tad academic.

Question - are there tools out there to identify "influencers" on the web?

Cheers

Edward Appleton

By: edward04

edward04 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:31:35 +0000

Great post, tad academic.

Question - are there tools out there to identify "influencers" on the web?

Cheers

Edward Appleton

By: Leverage The Power of Scarcity for Social & Viral Marketing | Dan Zarrella

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:58:03 +0000

[...] I’ve studied how there are powerful pressures at work for people to not only imitate those of their peers who have (or appear to have) more information than they do, but also why it is [...]

By: Bill Canaday

Bill Canaday — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 03:51:09 +0000

I usually choose the restaurant that is less crowded. I figure that the place that doesn’t have a table for me almost immediately doesn’t want my business bad enough while the other place is eager to get it and will make certain that I am well cared-for. It’s not bullet-proof logic, but it means that I don’t spend my dinner time standing in line waiting to be given the sardine treatment.

Maybe that’s why nobody likes me.

By: Why People Forward Chain Letters | Dan Zarrella

Why People Forward Chain Letters | Dan Zarrella — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:55:22 +0000

[...] social proof factor goes back to information cascades and the understanding that humans base many of their decisions on the choices of others, it just [...]

By: Steve Coombes

Steve Coombes — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 18:41:56 +0000

Just ran across this post (following in from your Twitter poll). I heard an interview on WBZ newsradio with Boston Market founder George Nadaff. He was discussing how he was impressed by a line of people outside a UFood restaurant (not sure that was name at the time). Long story short, he’s now involved in opening close to 40 of the restaurants out west. Courtesy of the ‘tipping point’ catalyst of a line of people standing outside the restaurant he was driving by.

By: Rob O.

Rob O. — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 18:01:45 +0000

Truly thought-provoking stuff. I’ll bet you already have, but you definitely need to read Malcolm Gladwell’s “The Tipping Point” if not. It’s fuel for all sorts of deep thinking and coffeehouse arguments.

By: Joan Vinall-Cox

Joan Vinall-Cox — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 12:59:17 +0000

Fascinating! I wonder if it would have been 23% if they’d interviewed Tweeters. I know that the recommendations and links I choose to follow on Twitter are those I see as having “high precision” knowledge, (which is why I’m ‘here’.)

I deliberately set out to change a small detail of behavior of others at my exercise club and it took me, acting twice a week, about a month to effect the change

By: Mark Lancaster

Mark Lancaster — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 12:17:48 +0000

Great article.

I absolutely agree that tipping points exist – it’s how many popular nightclubs become popular, and how those same nightclubs can become unpopular too.

Marketing does play a major role in how people consume the things they do. I mean, look at the idea of “pet rocks” – clearly stupid, yet it was a fad.

Thanks for the article though. Enjoyed it

By: Ron K Jeffries

Ron K Jeffries — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 20:49:31 +0000

Thought provoking article. Thanks for providing references.

By: lisa C

lisa C — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 18:13:44 +0000

This so explains the actions I see on a daily basis, thank you for a well written and easy to understand explanation. I will be doing more reading on this topic for sure.

By: Mark Dykeman

Mark Dykeman — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 15:55:24 +0000

Dan, I’m glad to see that the “influencer” conversation continues forward – it’s been one of my favorite topics in 2008.

Marshall’s article, and the Pollara study, does bring up the interesting point about the influence of bloggers, though, doesn’t it?

By: laurent

laurent — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 15:03:13 +0000

Dan,
Thanks for your analysis and all those great reference. Oh and the beautiful waterfall pictures! You’re probably onto something. How many times have I see friends choosing a restaurant vs another because one was almost full but the other was empty. For most people, the risk of trying something new is always a big consideration in making choices. To fight such a risk, there’s trust. In the restaurant case, as you said, we instinctively trust the others just by the fact that they made a choice before us one way vs the other. Your clarification helps a lot to sort out what’s being said lately about the tipping points, the influencers and so on. I read another posts that said something similar to you and ended up concluding that, when it comes to choosing who to engage with, marketers need to find ‘THEIR’ A-list vs THE A-list. It could be a bunch of people that aren’t part of the cream because they’re passionate about something that doesn’t make everyday’s headlines.

By: Paula

Paula — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:49:52 +0000

Although I only play with social networking and such for my own amusements, it’s very interesting to see the social science behind how we do the things we do. Thanx for writing such an interesting piece.

Oh yes, and on the 23% of respondents taking the advice of well known bloggers, I’m guessing they didn’t ask too many tech savvy people!