Online Political Market Research





Market research is the process of understanding the market, what consumers want, what they have, what they can afford, and what will make them want your product or service. I’m oversimplfying here of course, but bear with me. Political research is the same, it begins with understanding the voters, their wants and dislikes and the triggers that will drive them to make the actions you want them to make (usually casting a vote in your candidate’s favor).
The first place we start when doing research for a search marketing effort is in the keywords and competition, so lets assume we’d do the same when planning an online political marketing campaign. If you’ve got deep pockets, hitwise data could come in handy here, telling you which search terms drive traffic to political websites, and which websites in fact have the most traffic, but this won’t come cheap. We’ll have to rely on lower cost tools, Wordtracker, keyworddiscovery, alexa, etc. Scouring location specific keyword searches you should be able to locate the issues and candidates that are searched on most often, and you should also be able to get a rough idea of which sites get the most traffic. That will be a rough sketch of what the online political “market” in your region looks like.
Finding voters’ triggers is more akin to the persuasion and conversion analysis that we often do on commercial websites. Multivariate testing seems to be the most direct and possibly fruitful application of these concepts to the political arena. For instance, we could construct an article or essay on a topic and specific some sort of success metric, a survey or email subscription form. Then we’d test different keywords, themes, framings, etc to see which resonated most with readers and produced the highest levels of success (however we’re defining that). Of course, as is the case in commercial testing but more so in political testing, we’d have to pay close attention to the source of the traffic, perhaps pre-screening those who are most likely to already agree with the concepts were testing and those most likely to disagree.

If you liked this post, don't forget to subscribe to my RSS feed or my email newsletter so you never miss the science.

{ 6 comments }

Dave Morgan November 26, 2006 at 11:02 pm

Addressing the issue of multivariate web testing as a tool for honing political message(s): the challenge comes in knowing enough about the users to be able to segment them into targetable groups.

Whereas a simple multivariate test may reveal which message is “best overall”, the ideal approach is to further segment the data into discrete groups so that the “best per group” messages may be identified.

In theory this is no different from pollsters who conduct phone surveys to identify hot-buttons for specific groups of voters based on geography, gender, special interest group, societal class, etc.

On the web, we can run multivariate tests and do the same thing, but as of now we’re somewhat limited in terms of reliably identifying the segments (e.g. how to identify the gender of a user?) But of course on the web, we can test 1,000,000′s of people in days – far more than telephone polls.

Looking forward to 2008, I won’t be surprised if these sorts of tools are used … will you?

Dan Zarrella November 27, 2006 at 11:12 am

It seems like this is an area ripe for using behavioral targeting. pre-targetting and all that. I’m be surprised if these kinds of tools and tests haven’t been used already in past elections, and I can state that I will be using them in 2007.

Dave Morgan November 27, 2006 at 7:58 pm

> I can state that I will be using them in 2007.

what office are you running for? :)

Dan Zarrella November 28, 2006 at 7:56 am

me? nothing, not my style. But a potential client is.
I see you’re from a testing company, what kind of pricing do you guys offer?

Dave Morgan November 28, 2006 at 3:14 pm

Dan, pricing starts at $1,800/mo. for unlimited testing. (Unlimited means across any page(s), for any number of success metrics, for any number of segments, any number of concurrent tests, A/B and/or multivariate, etc.)

http://www.sitespect.com

DM

Market Research Guy August 30, 2007 at 5:32 pm

Hi,
You might be interested in this market research study about how social networking sites may or may not have an effect on the 2008 election: http://www.gmi-mr.com/gmipoll/release.php?p=20070821